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Week 15 - Football detox
Before I wish you all a muy Feliz Año Nuevo, allow me to start with a quick warning: I haven't watched one single second of football since La Liga stopped for its Christmas break. This fasting exercise was aimed firstly at proving to myself that there's life outside football and secondly at testing whether my, at this point questionable, psychic abilities would be reinforced by a couple of weeks of football detox (results to be evaluated on Sunday evening).
Now it's time: Feliz Año Nuevo! (translation: Happy Betting Year!) Let's start. Remember, it's '1' for a home win, 'X' for a draw and '2' for an away win.
1. Racing de Santander (19th) - Zaragoza (20th): 1.
And what a better way to start the New Year than a slugfest between the bottom two teams! The calendar shows us some dark sense of humour. This season, both clubs have given us so many motives to make sarcastic comments that it's not fun at all anymore. Let me illustrate their respective current states of chaos with two sad examples from this winter's transfer window: Zaragoza's Argentinean midfielder Ponzio asked to be transferred back to his homeland to play in the Division B for River Plate, forgoing a sizeable amount of money that Zaragoza owed him. In short, Ponzio paid to leave La Liga's Zaragoza to play in Argentina's second division.
While that happened, Racing didn't close the potential sale of Ariel - one of their only decent offensive options - to Brazilian side Palmeiras because after all the turmoil in the club's management, there was no sports director entitled to approve the deal together with the interim managers. Now that the Santanderinos finally named a new sports director, Palmeiras have already signed another player. You couldn't make this stuff up.
In this depressing context, Zaragoza's defence, La Liga's worst, looks like the difference maker, even if their new boss Manolo Jimenez knows a thing or two about tough defending. Insufferable home win.
2. Levante (4th) - Mallorca (14th): 1.
Write this down: Levante's second half of the season won't be pretty. The limitations of their short squad will become painfully apparent in February and March, as key players pick up injuries and their tiredness levels increase towards exhaustion. For starters, Juanlu, a very influential factor in their successful last quarter of 2011, just went down injured for three months. A sign of things to come indeed.
Although not quite yet. Mallorca arrive in Valencia after a Copa del Rey defeat in San Sebastian, and we already know that players hate consecutive matches away from their homes, especially this time of the year with the Wise Men coming and all. Easy '1'.
3. Real Sociedad (15th) - Osasuna (5th): 2.
Real Sociedad's season has been an archetypal rollercoaster so far. Between ups and downs, boss Philippe Montanier keeps tinkering with his starting XI, having tried all types of combinations of players, especially in defensive midfield where five players have already been tested.
This column favours continuity. Stable squads, line-ups you can say in your sleep, sides that play together forever and players that know each other by heart, tend to put together consistent strings of results. Ask humble visitors Osasuna, occupying a mindboggling fifth position in the table and, defeats against Barcelona and Real Madrid aside, a very well-structured team with players that have been playing together for several seasons now. Beautiful match to go for a '2'.
4. Real Madrid (1st) - Granada (13th): 1.
Had the Madridistas not played their Copa del Rey tie against Malaga on Wednesday, this match against Granada would have 'Trap' written all over it. Lazy return from the holiday break, tough defensive team visiting the Bernabeu, at least 80% of possession and no space for counters ... One of those games which have cost Madrid Ligas in recent seasons - on top of the super-mega derbies, of course.
But the Merengues have already had their beginning of year scare - they were trailing 2-0 at home versus Malaga on Wednesday before an impressive comeback win, so they should show up totally alert on Saturday after Jose Mourinho's post-match scolding ('I would have replace all 11 starters at half-time if it were allowed'). Tough luck for overachievers Granada.
5. Málaga (7th) - Atletico de Madrid (10th): 2.
Perfect storm for Atletico. New boss and former Colchonero player Diego Pablo Simeone, who utterly embodies the (lost?) spirit of the 95-96 Double-winning squad, comes back to coach the Rojiblancos, taking the place so faint-heartedly left vacant by Gregorio Manzano. Now expect a new era of vehement calls for manhood, sweat, blood and tears on the pitch, and two or three starters summarily benched as an unequivocal 'I am the boss here' statement from Simeone. A trademark three-match Atletico hype is guaranteed, mark my words.
If that was not enough, Malaga can only think of their upcoming second leg Copa tie against Real Madrid next week, as they have a decent chance of eliminating the Madridistas. Fatal Distraction Syndrome will fire on all cylinders in Malaga, easing El Cholo Simeone's way to a comforting winning debut.
6. Rayo Vallecano (16th) - Sevilla (6th): 1.
Please welcome another member to the Prodigal Son category: Jose Antonio Reyes, La Perla, just went back to his beloved Sevilla nine years and five teams after his last season at the Sanchez Pizjuan. The controversial player finally left Atletico after long and tiring weeks of discussions about his future away from the Manzanares river.
Back to the match. The pick isn't a straightforward one, as Rayo tend to play better away from home and Sevilla have been complacent visitors so far. No major absentees, no new faces ... The deciding factor? This is the noon match, a bizarre time to play in most of Spain, but a classic Sunday pastime in Vallecas. During the second half, when hunger attacks Sevilla players and they start to behave bizarrely, you will remember this column.
7. Getafe (12th) - Athletic de Bilbao (9th): X.
This match has 'Stay Away' written all over it. Two unpredictable teams, able to beat the best and lose to the worst, in dire need of two or three wins in a row to make this season significant. One could see them settling happily for a draw to extend their meaningless first half of the term.
8. Villarreal (17th) - Valencia (3rd): X.
Even though Villarreal, a small market team, tend to get less attention than other squads, one could say that Juan Carlos Garrido did more to get fired than Atletico's Gregorio Manzano. Quick recap: Villarreal were eliminated from the Champions League with no points to their name after six matches, they currently sit in 17th position in La Liga's table despite enjoying the sixth largest budget, and they managed to get outclassed and knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Third Division side Mirandes.
Francisco Molina, a former top-level goalie who made his debut for Spain as an improvised midfielder, got the nod to save the Amarillos. It seems too early to defeat Valencia, but we'll indeed see a more disciplined Villarreal against some tired Ches, coming from a tough Cup tie against Sevilla. A draw makes sense.
9. Betis (11th) - Sporting de Gijón (18th): X.
When everything points to a Betis win, this column likes Sporting. With two consecutive wins, the hosts have recovered their balance, proven that they believe in their coach Pepe Mel and sit comfortably in the middle of the table. But the Gijoneses had improved their usually poor performance away from home before the break, and know what's at stake now. A visitors' victory sounds like a stretch, but an 'X' sounds entirely feasible.
10. Espanyol (8th) - Barcelona (2nd): 2.
Yes, I know that Espanyol have behaved naughtily when facing their neighbours in recent seasons, showing a great deal of aggressiveness and desire to spoil the Azulgranas' parties. I also know that this season's Espanyol look and play significantly better than most of their teams in the past decade.
However, since their victory at the Bernabeu, Barcelona can do no wrong. Their insultingly superior performance in the FIFA Club World Cup and their easy Copa win in midweek say it all. I simply can't see them dropping points at Cornella, especially with Cesc Fabregas and Lionel Messi in such a fantastic run of form. The former has scored 13 goals since he left Arsenal, which makes him the second leading Spanish scorer this season behind Roberto Soldado. The latter ... well, don't ask me to write anything original complimenting Messi, I just came back from holidays. In any case, it's a clear '2'.
Use this easy 'Copy and Paste' summary to write your own Quiniela and share it with us in the 'Comments' section. If you get 10 correct results, your name will be mentioned in the following Quiniela column!
1. Racing de Santander (19th) - Zaragoza (20th): 1.
2. Levante (4th) - Mallorca (14th): 1.
3. Real Sociedad (15th) - Osasuna (5th): 2.
4. Real Madrid (1st) - Granada (13th): 1.
5. Málaga (7th) - Atletico de Madrid (10th): 2.
6. Rayo Vallecano (16th) - Sevilla (6th): 1.
7. Getafe (12th) - Athletic de Bilbao (9th): X.
8. Villarreal (17th) - Valencia (3rd): X.
9. Betis (11th) - Sporting de Gijón (18th): X.
10. Espanyol (8th) - Barcelona (2nd): 2.
Last week: 5/10 (50%)
Season: 71/140 (50%)
